Transforming Uncertainty into Competitive Advantage through Business Antifragility Management
Introduction - How to make decisions under uncertainty
Since 2015, I have been concerned with the digital transformation and its impact on corporate structures. I have been particularly interested in understanding how organizations make business decisions in the present and the future, especially in handling uncertainty and disruptions. However, I realized that an important term was missing from my understanding: antifragility.
Discovery of Nassim Taleb's Ideas:
In 2019, while reading "The Art of Thinking Clearly: Better Thinking, Better Decisions (Die Kunst des guten Lebens)" by Rolf Dobelli, I came across numerous references to an author named Nassim Taleb. Intrigued by this, I decided to delve deeper and ordered Taleb's book, "The Black Swan." To my fascination, I found that Taleb's ideas resonated with me, as they described many phenomena, I had already observed but lacked the appropriate names and descriptions for. Eager to explore further, I impulsively purchased the entire series of his books called "The Incerto," including "Fooled by Randomness," "Antifragile," and "Skin in the Game."
Reading through the series once a year, I continue to gain new insights and perspectives, which have significantly influenced various aspects of my life and my skill portfolio: Reading the series once a year, I always gain new insights and perspectives that have significantly impacted various aspects of my life and skills portfolio; Thriving in Incerto.
Recognition of Fragility During the Covid-19 Pandemic:
When the Covid-19 pandemic hit Europe with full force, I couldn't help but notice the fragility of many businesses when faced with unexpected events. This realization sparked my contemplation on how to design businesses to be more robust in times of crisis.
Applying Incerto's Ideas to the Business Environment:
Motivated by the desire to make a practical impact, I have decided to embark on a bachelor's thesis that applies the ideas presented in the Incerto series to the business environment. My thesis will involve a comprehensive exploration of concepts and definitions, including fragility and antifragility. Additionally, I will present frameworks, methods, and strategies to apply these concepts to different aspects of a business, from individual components to the entire organization.
Now to my Concept:
⚙ The Triad: Fragility & Robustness & Antifragility
⚙ Incerto Coach
⚙ Black Swan Events
⚙ Fooled by Randomness - The hidden Impacts of Chance in the Company Environments e.g. Markets
⚙ Skin in the Game - Hidden Asymmetries in Daily Business
⚙ Mediocristan and Extremistan
⚙ Sustainability beyond Resilience
⚙ Via Negativa
⚙ Barbell Strategy
⚙ Green Lumber Fallacy
📜 Mindset related prerequisites for antifragility management
➡ View forecasts critical
➡ Accepting fragility
➡ Take Risks not Manage Risks
➡ Letting go of efficiency
➡ Using options (not the financial instrument), therefore using antifragility
➡ Accepting variability, letting go of the stability lemma
📜 Frameworks to execute fragility, resilience and antifragility analysis in a part of a company
➡ How to handle the Fragility Wheel
➡ Fragility Source Matrix
➡ Lorenzo´s 5 Points Model
➡ Lorenzo´s Crunch Corner
📜 Frameworks to execute fragility, resilience and antifragility analysis of a whole company
➡ Fragility Interaction Model
➡ Fragility Spill Over Model
📜How to make a business less fragile and more antifragile
If you would like to inquire / book me for a keynote or impulse talk: +49 (0)176 47136796 (also via whatsapp)
Keynote oder Impulsvortrag anfragen
Wenn Sie mich für einen Keynote- oder Implusvortrag anfragen / buchen möchten: +49 (0)176 47136796 (auch via whatsapp)